Wednesday:
ETNZ Wins Semi-Final Race 7

Surf's Up: NZL-92 rides high in Wednesday's big seas.  The Kiwis beat ESP-97 to win the Semi-Final series 5-2.
Photo: ©2007 Chris Cameron/ETNZ

Wednesday Results:

Emirates Team New Zealand beats Desafío Español by 1:18, and the Kiwi's advance to the Louis Vuitton Cup Final.  ETNZ led at every mark of Race 7, and gained on every leg, making for a comfortable win over the Spanish team.

ETNZ will face Italy's Luna Rossa Challenge in the Louis Vuitton Cup Final starting June 1, a best-of-nine series staring June 1.  The LVC winner will challenge Alinghi for the America's Cup starting June 23.

Quotes:

Terry Hutchinson, Tactician, ETNZ: "I think we're going to take a couple days off, and at this stage of the competition rest is as much a vital part to our preparation as things that we can do to our boat."

"There's a lot of little things that we can do better and beat Prada.  We're going to have to sail better and raise our game another level from this series."

"You can't say enough about the job that Desafío did. It's was always interesting, because I think we were the only ones who believed that they were going to take races off of us.  They have a fast boat and they have really good sailors, and so every time you go out there, it always felt 50/50, even though potentially it was stronger in our advantage. They sailed a good series, and they did a good job with helping prepare us for what's ahead."

Asked about upcoming LVC Final opponent Luna Rossa's willingness to separate from match race opponents: "Torben [Grael] and their afterguard are very comfortable going off into the corners, and they seem to do it very well, so it will be interesting to see if both boats drag race into to a corner how the one comes out."

More quotes at ACM

Wednesday Racing Outlook:

Rest day is over, Tuesday was cancelled due to high winds and waves, but when racing resumes Emirates Team New Zealand has a fight on their hands.  Desafío Español came out Sunday, after a morning warm-up sparring against BMW Oracle, and got an early lead, then defended it against a Kiwi team that looked almost fast enough, but not quite.  And Kiwi maneuvers that almost got the lead back, but not quite.  It was that kind of day.  With three races to go, potentially, nothing is certain in this match anymore.

Cup fans know the drill on this one by now, NZL-92 and ESP-97 have been very close, the starts have been critical, and the leader at the first cross has had a massive advantage.  In such close racing, disciplined match racing tactics are usually rewarded, but there is no room to recover from mistakes.  Given the huge stakes, expect a trailing boat to throw everything possible at their opponent.  With the chance to go for a knockout blow, will ETNZ try to settle matters in the pre-start?

Warning signal at 14:50h, start at 15:00h.

Weather Forecast:  RepCast: NNE 9-14 knots early, building late to 14-18.  ETNZ: NE 10-15 knots  ACM: NE 16-18 knots, decreasing to 14-16.

Muleta is the Spanish word for the small red cape a matador waves in the ring.  How will Desafio's charge turn out Tuesday?  Photo: ©2007 Chris Cameron/ETNZ
click to enlarge

Wearing of the Green: Desafío Español fans pack the harbor to cheer the team's success. 
©ACM 2007/Photo: Carlos Lujan

Sunday Results:  Semi-Final Race 6

A critical overlap at the 3rd mark kept Desafío Español in the lead.  Photo: ©2007 Chris Cameron/ETNZ

Results:

Desafío beats ETNZ, series goes to 4-2.  Luna Rossa beats BMW Oracle, wins series, advances to the final.  BMW Oracle is eliminated.

BMW Oracle had a good start, wanted the right and got it, but LR took the favored pin end and made immediate gains.  A lift brought ITA-94 into the lead early on the first beat and there was little change after that.  Finish delta was 33 seconds.  BMW Oracle, who looked unstoppable only a week ago, is out of the Louis Vuitton Cup.  See chart of BMW Oracle gains and losses in all Semi-Final races at CupStats.  Luna Rossa faces the winner of the Desafío-ETNZ series starting June 1.

Desafío Español got the right, extended a bit early, and defended the lead the rest of the race.  ETNZ tried a layline push at the 3rd mark, but ESP-97 rolled up a bit on them to get the overlap and inside position for the rounding.  Going into the last leg NZL-92 was right on the Spanish, but never closed, and a slight bobble with the pole in a gibe lost the Kiwi's another half-boatlength.  Finish delta was 15 seconds.  Next race is scheduled for Tuesday.

Quotes:

Chris Dickson, CEO, BMW Oracle:  "The decision to take me off the boat today was Larry's decision.  It was his call to make, and he's the owner, and that's the call he made today."

"We were beaten by a better team.  That's sport.  Well done, Luna Rossa."

"The future for the team is that Larry is committed to having the team continue.  That was decided some time ago and that hasn't changed."

Luna Rossa crew waves to happy fans after winning their semi-final series.
©ACM 2007/Photo: Carlo Borlenghi

Sunday Outlook:

This is it.  Two teams have their backs to the wall, win today or go home. 

Big News: Chris Dickson has stepped off USA-98.  Gavin Brady will be skipper/tactician.  Sten Mohr will be helmsman.

Weather forecasts ETNZ: NE 8-12.  ACM: NE 8-10 building to 12-14. RepCast: Becoming breezy, ENE 14-19.

Desafío Español has put up a good fight against Emirates Team New Zealand, and won a great deal of respect in the process, but nobody is going to be shocked by the outcome if ETNZ eliminates the Spanish.

One more race.  Photo: ©2007 Chris Cameron/ETNZ

It's a different story for the other team facing elimination, BMW Oracle.  Luna Rossa is earning their victories, but BMW Oracle is a team that has lacked for absolutely nothing, whether it was money ($150 million USD or so), design geniuses, or top sailing talent.  At worst even the most knowledgeable observers would have expected a close series, and certainly not the near sweep that is taking place so far.  That a team so tough and well-prepared finds itself in such a one-sided semi-final series is stunning.

Even when starting well, BMW Oracle hasn't been able to turn that into a lead.  When starting poorly, and surely Saturday's pair of penalties has to be scored that way, BMWO has not found ways to get to the front with the exception of Race 2's dramatic late pass for the win.

In the Rounds Robin BMW Oracle was a well-oiled machine that looked destined for the LVC and had many people looking ahead to a defense in San Francisco Bay.  It's a particular sort of irony that BMWO losing to China Team, who beat no one else, let ETNZ take first place among the four semi-finalists and left BMW Oracle in the position of facing Luna Rossa in the semi's.

BMW Oracle hasn't looked unusually slow or unlucky or unprepared.  They have just found themselves a step behind on the first leg and only once managed to overcome it.  What they haven't been in the Semi's is faster than Luna Rossa around the course.  With a break, an advantage at the start, or a good call on a wind shift, everything might change, but Luna Rossa is finding the early advantages and reaping the rewards.  With the current configurations the Italians give up nothing in speed, and as a team have been at the America's Cup game longer than their opponents.  Prada faced an all-time dogfight to win the 2000 LVC Final, their first America's Cup effort, and they dealt with adversity and frustration in 2003.  BMW Oracle does not intimidate them.

With everything on the line, some are looking for BMW Oracle to make big changes in search of a winning combination.  Others say there is nothing broken, there's nothing to fix except to win.  Today is the last chance to do that.

Friday Results: Semi-Final Race 4

The classic crossed sails.  Luna Rossa won the duel Friday.  Photo: ©2007 Gilles Martin-Raget

Friday Results, Race 4:

Despite a good start in Race 4, BMW Oracle could not catch Luna Rossa. The Italians led the whole race, and BMWO is down 3-1 in the series after losing by 0:23.  ETNZ beat Desafío Español again, winning by 42 seconds this time, putting the Kiwis ahead 3-1.  BMWO has yet to lead at a single mark on the course.

Quotes:

The highlight of the press conference was the response by Matt Wachowicz, Navigator, Desafío Español, when asked about Desafio's "losing streak" and its impact on the team's motivation.

Wachowicz answered with an impassioned and sustained speech that drew applause from the press corps and made clear the attitude that drives Desafío Español, and America's Cup sailing, too.  A small excerpt: "We're looking forward to getting up tomorrow, we're looking forward to docking out.  We'd go racing right now if we could, 'cause we're just having the greatest time.  And the team has such a great great feeling about being able to participate, and maybe we're down 3-1, but we know we give them a fight every time.  They don't underestimate us, they don't take us lightly -- I don't think they do -- and I think that they know that if they slip up once, if they make one mistake, we're going to jump on them.

"We're not worried about motivation, we're not worried about losing streaks, we're not worried about being in the cellar.  We're going to go out there tomorrow, we're going to win, and that's the way we see it."

Read more quotes at ACM

USA-98 sails past the J-Class yacht Velsheda.
click to enlarge Photo: ©2007 Gilles Martin-Raget

Friday Outlook:

Rest Day is over, and Friday is a big day for all involved. Both Semi-final series stand at 2 races to 1, and if either trailing team doesn't tie at 2-2, the path to the LVC Final will start looking mighty steep.

Weather: ETNZ: SE 10-15 knots.  ACM: light 5-6 knots ESE early, becoming SE 12-14 with sea breeze. RepCast: Shifty east wind early becoming ESE 12-16 by the start.

What the teams have to do:

Emirates Team New Zealand:  Start authoritatively against Desafío Español.  ETNZ has shown they can hold a lead, they need to flex some muscle on ESP and get ahead.  But after Wednesday's penalty, Desafío may be smelling blood and coming back for more.  More signs of weakness will just embolden the other team, ETNZ needs to shut them down at the start and sail away with it.

Desafío Español:  Mix. Don't go quietly, fight and scrap with ETNZ from the start onward.  The more confrontation, the more chance to find some advantage.  Though fast downwind, ESP has not shown the speed to win from behind against ETNZ yet.  The Spanish look like a very well trained team and they need to put pressure on their opponent in the hope something good comes out of it.  Desafío has starboard entry to the pre-start today.

Luna Rossa:  Keep it up.  They are starting well enough, doing very well at being in the right place at the right time, and despite a downwind speed disadvantage have held off BMW Oracle with the exception of the last few hundred yards of Race 2.  Opinions differ on whether a close covering strategy would be better then the splits LR sometimes prefers when ahead.  Chasing wind while ahead is a high risk option that has backfired for the Italians before.  When they did cover in Race 3, they looked destined for the LVC Final.
 

BMW Oracle's Upwind and Downwind Gains or Losses in the LVC Semi-Finals.  Click Above or see CupStats

BMW Oracle: Don't get spit out in the pre-start, and whether it's tactics or strategy or just plain not being unlucky, somehow win the first cross and the first beat.  USA-98 has shown downwind gains consistently against Luna Rossa, gaining on every downwind except the freak finish of Race 1.  Given the opportunity to sail defensively instead of chase the leader, Larry Ellison's boys can turn things around in a hurry.

Thursday: They Rested (and more)

ETNZ is now two wins away from the LVC Final. 
Photo: ©2007 Chris Cameron/ETNZ

Thursday is a rest day, and racing resumes Friday with Race 4.  ESP-97 and USA-98 were sailing with new measurement certificates Wednesday.  Current forecast for Friday includes a jump in wind speed.  The rest day will allow more tinkering with boat configurations, and plenty of time to think about adjustments in tactics, too.

Wednesday: Semi-Final Day 3

Going Green in Race 3: Desafío's first match race win ever over Emirates Team New Zealand.
Photo: ©2007 Chris Cameron/ETNZ

Luna Rossa leads to finish; ESP-97 gets on the board

Wednesday Results:

Desafío Español found a way to get ahead and stay there all race, winning by 1:14, as a pre-start penalty made Emirates Team New Zealand's life difficult.  This is Desafío's first match race victory ever against the Kiwis.  Their series stands at 2-1 for ETNZ. 

Luna Rossa led at every turning mark, just as they have throughout the LVC semi-final, and BMW Oracle ran out of room to catch them.  ITA-94 gained upwind while USA-98 gained back downwind, but not enough.  LR won by 0:31 to take a 2-1 lead in the series.

ITA-94 led USA-98 at every mark in Race 3.
Photo: ©2007 Gilles Martin-Raget

Rear Aspect:  Emirates Team New Zealand sails on in Race 2.  Photo: ©2007 Chris Cameron/ETNZ

Quotes:

Dean Barker, ETNZ: "Today the only thing that really went right was the wind, unfortunately we were on the left."

James Spithill, Helmsman, Luna Rossa Challenge, on overcoming yesterday’s disappointment: "We said look no matter how much you think about it, the what-if's, we could have done this or that, you're never going to change the result.  It is what it is.  The one thing we can do is focus on the next day, which is today, and go out there and really show what the team is made of.  It was real satisfying to see the boys step up to that challenge because a result like yesterday can either crumble a weak team, or a strong team will bounce back and really come out and show their strength. And that’s what the guys did."

Eric Doyle, Strategist, BMW Oracle Racing, asked what is going wrong: "We’re missing a couple of little breaks here and there, but we'd have to say that for the most part the boys next door are nailing everything pretty much 100%.  They had a little bit of a slipup yesterday downwind where we caught them off guard, but hats off to them, they are doing a really nice job."

Asked whether this race was done at the start, Doyle responded:  "We didn't think so, but as it turned out, yes, it was.  The pressure came in nicely from the right hand side, it was a pretty good right hand shift and that side of the course was favored about 85% of the time -- and they were on the correct side 85% of the time.  They picked up one nice leftie on the second beat and did a nice job downwind, despite our best efforts to out-gybe them and try to trip them up a little bit.  So with one side being favored there were definitely much fewer opportunities than the last few days."  More quotes at ACM

Wednesday Outlook:

Weather: ACM: Light easterly veering SE 8-10 knots.  ETNZ: SE 10-14 knots.  Warning gun at 14:50h.

Races: Emirates Team New Zealand will look to keep the points coming, Desafío Español has apparently been following the strategy of trying to stick close and waiting for ETNZ to stumble, and they may have the downwind speed to benefit from it, but time is running out.  ESP-97 needs to make something happen.  They have the port entry in Race 3.

Trailing by 0:58 after Leg 1, BMW Oracle pulled a rabbit out of their hat Tuesday, passing Luna Rossa, and throwing her a bit of a luff just in time to get ahead before the finish.  Opinions vary wildly as to how comparatively fast the boats truly are upwind and downwind, and what sort of magic BMW Oracle used to pull that off, whether boatspeed, tactics, or something else.  Magic aside, what BMW Oracle fans want to see most is a strong start and some rewarding tactical choices early to reassure them their sailing machine is back on track.  Luna Rossa should be coming out as aggressive as ever, they had a great pre-start and opening beat in Race 2, and without making too many mistakes will be hard to beat.  This series has the makings of a classic.

Tuesday: Semi-Final Day 2

In a electric finish that capped an exciting clash, USA-98 found a way to edge ITA-94 on Day 2 and even the series.   Photo: ©2007 Gilles Martin-Raget

Tuesday Results:

Emirates Team New Zealand piles another one on Desafío Español, winning by 0:40 and taking a 2-0 lead in the series.  Luna Rossa and BMW Oracle in a nailbiter to the finish:  BMW Oracle catches them with the finish line in sight, holds off a late surge and a dive to the line by Luna Rossa, and takes a thrilling come from behind victory.  13 second delta for BMW Oracle, but a huge win in a pivotal match.

Read a great Tuesday snapshot from Kimball Livingston at Got Live
 

ETNZ takes a 2-0 lead over Desafío Español.
Photo: ©2007 Lyn Hines

Quotes:

Peter Isler, BMW Oracle, on BMWO's downwind gains: "If you look at all the margins downwind so far, any team would be happy to be that fast downwind, but you certainly can't write it all off to boatspeed.  We've always been really happy with '98 all around the course.  She's a great boat.  The last couple of days, because of the oscillations, and because of the puffs, there have been more opportunities for the trailing boat to look super-fast than on a traditional sea breeze day where you just have a persistent shift."

Tuesday Outlook:

Second races of the Semi-finals:  ETNZ trying to repeat against Desafío Español.  BMW Oracle looking to correct the ledger against Luna Rossa.  Warning gun at 14:50h.

Weather: RepCast: Light early, 4-6 knots ENE, veering throughout midday, becoming SE 7-11 knots after the start.  ETNZ: SE 10-14 knots.

Races:  Desafío never let ETNZ get too far away in Race 1, but New Zealand was able to maintain an advantage once it was won.  Against a defensively sailed NZL-92, ESP-97 wasn't exactly outclassed but neither did she show the passing speed that earned her a trip to the semi's.  (See Cameron Dunn's take on how Monday's start set up New Zealand's victory).   If there are any slip-ups from the Round-Robin-winning New Zealanders, the Spanish look like they will be right on them.  Desafío gets the starboard entry in Race 2, will they go after ETNZ aggressively in the pre-start? 

BMW Oracle fans were surprised to see USA-98 chasing Luna Rossa in Race 1 despite what looked like a good start.  BMWO fans are quick to chalk it up to fluky winds, but LR's Torben Grael made another great call and got it right (Mark Chisnell's comments are instructive).  Although BMWO pulled off several passing maneuvers in the Round Robins, ITA-94 was not caught Monday, and a luffing gambit didn't do the trick, either, making the Italians look a lot more like the winning team they were back in 2000 than they have for some time since.  Steadier wind Tuesday may help reveal if Patrizio Bertelli's Silver Bullet is here to stay.

Monday: Louis Vuitton Cup Semi-Final Day 1 Results

Luna Rossa eclipses BMW Oracle in the opening race of the Louis Vuitton Cup semi-final, winning by 2:19. 
Photo: ©2007 Gilles Matin-Raget

ETNZ and Desafío, shown above in Round Robin 2, will race in the semi's.
Click image to enlarge Photo: ©2007 Chris Cameron/ETNZ

Monday Results:

Luna Rossa shows BMW Oracle some moves, wins by 2:19, and leads their series 1-0 after Day 1.  Emirates Team New Zealand beats Desafío Español by 0:43 to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-nine series.

Quotes:

Peter Isler, Navigator, BMW ORACLE Racing:  "We were happy with our position at the start. After a drag race to left, a fifteen degree leftie hit us near the left lay line -- you can’t plan for that, but it ended up being a turning point in the race.  Another tiny overlap at the leeward gate put them not only ahead immediately, but engineered a split, the one thing you didn’t want on a day like today. Good sailors won today by keeping their eyes open and having good boat handling."

Torben Grael, Tactician, Luna Rossa Challenge, on having owner Patrizio Bertelli on board as 18th man: "He probably found it hard to keep quiet and possibly wanted to jump on my neck on the first downwind leg! But it was great that he was on board today that we did so well." 

More Quotes at ACM

Monday Outlook:

Emirates Team New Zealand versus Desafío Español.
BMW Oracle versus Luna Rossa.

The two semi-final series begin Monday April 14, first warning signal scheduled for 14:50h.  First boat in each series to win five races will advance to the Louis Vuitton Cup Final. 

Semi-final Pairings: Emirates Team New Zealand versus Desafío Español, and BMW Oracle versus Luna Rossa.

ETNZ beat Desafío 2-0 in the rounds robin, the Kiwis led at every mark in both races, for finish deltas for 1:12 and 0:43.  ETNZ leads 5-0 in their LV Act matches.

BMW Oracle beat Luna Rossa 2-0 in the rounds robin.  BMWO led one match start to finish, while in the other Luna Rossa led BMW Oracle until the second upwind leg, and both races finished with close winning deltas of 0:19 and 0:06.  BMW Oracle leads 5-2 in previous LV Acts.

It's likely in all cases that the teams have modified their boats since RR2, adapting to expected conditions and perceived performance profiles of their opponents, as well as incorporating new design and tuning inputs.  Winds in the Semi-finals are expected to be a bit higher and more consistent than in the rounds robin.  Race legs in the semi's will be longer, 3.0 miles on the rhum line instead of 2.5, which rewards straightline speed but also allows more room for trailing teams to recover.

Weather: ETNZ: NW to NE, 10 to 20 knots.  RepCast: Breezy 12-16 knots WNW early, but as temps warm things may start getting ugly.  Around start time pressure decreases...and by 1530, backing to SW and dropping fast.  Possible favored left side early.

Interesting to look for:  If Desafío doesn't perceive themselves to have a speed advantage over ETNZ, the Spanish may choose to dice it up in the pre-start hoping to draw a penalty or at least a good position at the gun.  ETNZ, hindered by an afterguard injury, is fighting a reputation they developed in the RR's as a vulnerable boat in the pre-starts and will be under pressure to show otherwise.

BMW Oracle and Luna Rossa's pairing looks to be a drag race at the beginning, one boat fast and the other hoping to hang with them.  If there's wind in the 14+ knot range we may see ITA racing in much more suitable conditions than she had in the RR's.  If conditions drop to light air, Cup fans with moderately long memories will be looking to see whether LR's tactician Torben Grael focuses more closely on the wind or the opponent.

Quote:
Chris Dickson, Skipper, BMW Oracle Racing:  "When 87 was launched, she was incredibly innovative and 98 has moved on from there. Nothing stands still. Other teams have also made huge leaps. If you took any of the boats that were racing this week out to the start line against any of the top boats from the last AC in Auckland it would be 5-0 guaranteed. The new boats are several generations ahead, and this is consistent throughout history."

More quotes at ACM

Also see:  USA-87 and USA-98, BMW Oracle design team and who did what:

  Story by Angus Phillips at Washingtonpost.com